Statistical forecasting of the technical condition of sewage pipes

Abstract

The article presents statistical forecasting of the technical condition of stoneware pipes based on the exponential distribution in connection with convolution product. The convolution product helps to define the survival functions for cumulative staying times of the sewer pipes in each condition class. The model was calibrated and validated based on right-censored data. The basis for the forecast were the results of a complete camera inspection carried out in 2000. The deterioration states of the sewer pipes were be quantified using the DWA-M 149-3 system, on a scale of 1-5. Application of the proposed model and calibration procedure allows to determine the necessary scope of renovation works and the technical life of sewer pipes.