The Paradox of Structural Transformation: Decarbonization through Energy Supply Limitation in Germany (2000–2025)
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.17512/INSTAL.2026.06.02Keywords:
European Green Deal, Decarbonization, Energy Supply Decline, Variable Renewable Energy Sources (VRE), Nuclear Phase-outAbstract
Analysis of the German energy transition between 2000 and 2025 reveals that the primary driver of CO₂ emission reductions was not the expansion of intermittent renewable energy sources (VRE), but a significant decline in total electricity production. While wind and solar generation increased by 215.4 TWh during this period, nearly 80% of this growth was offset by the simultaneous phase-out of 171.3 TWh of carbon-free nuclear power. This resulted in a net gain of only 44.1 TWh of low-emission energy, whereas fossil fuel generation fell by 190.3 TWh. The remaining deficit of 146.2 TWh shows high convergence with the overall 146 TWh decline in Germany’s total energy supply. These findings indicate that over 77% of the observed decarbonization resulted from reduced energy production rather than technological substitution. The study suggests that without a systemic drop in energy demand, the current rate of VRE development would be insufficient to meet climate goals, especially when coupled with the decommissioning of dispatchable zero-emission sources.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Ziemowit Malecha, Piotr Grądzik (Autor)
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